Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$80.99

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 89.6¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,040

Combined PnL+$91.09

Yes5 traders

Total Value$149.12

Total Shares1,470

Combined PnL-$10.1

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Noavg 90¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$63.64	37% 996-1715 (2711)
GC GC-P	Noavg 88.7¢	$415.09	$425.68	+$10.59	37% 367-618 (985)
DR DreamwireARB<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$362.27	$371.43	+$9.16	72% 200-78 (278)
└ No leg	Noavg 92.4¢	$231	$229.13	-$1.88
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.7¢	$131.27	$142.3	+$11.03
NM NM-P	Noavg 89¢	$155.75	$159.25	+$3.5	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
LI Limousin	Noavg 88.9¢	$107.58	$107.65	+$0.07	36% 979-1704 (2683)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$85.02	$82.93	-$2.09	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$54.08	$50.13	-$3.95	46% 2762-3273 (6035)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$13.38	$10.89	-$2.49	42% 1031-1416 (2447)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.9	$9.1	+$0.2	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 88.8¢	$117.42	$8.37	+$13.08	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$6.29	$4.72	-$1.57	48% 2164-2307 (4471)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.45	$0.45	-$0	55% 5404-4376 (9780)

Venusian

Invested

$1,134.18

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$63.64

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

GC-P

Invested

$415.09

Value

$425.68

PnL

+$10.59

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

DreamwireARB<$100

Invested

$362.27

Value

$371.43

PnL

+$9.16

Record

72%

200-78 (278)

Both legs:

No$23192.4¢-$1.88

Yes$131.277.7¢+$11.03

NM-P

Invested

$155.75

Value

$159.25

PnL

+$3.5

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

Limousin

Invested

$107.58

Value

$107.65

PnL

+$0.07

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.02

Value

$82.93

PnL

-$2.09

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.08

Value

$50.13

PnL

-$3.95

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.38

Value

$10.89

PnL

-$2.49

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.9

Value

$9.1

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

38791873984189

Invested

$117.42

Value

$8.37

PnL

+$13.08

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.29

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$1.57

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.1%

89.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.