Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 96¢ · $594 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 55%
$594.04
-$23.83
89.2¢ → 95.5¢
+7% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 90¢ | $159.62 | $160.61 | +$0.99 | 37% 367-618 (985) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 89¢ | $154.11 | $156.71 | +$2.6 | 36% 975-1701 (2676) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 88¢ | $103.47 | $103.47 | +$0 | 47% 936-1036 (1972) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $119.91 | $75.71 | -$44.2 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $31.51 | $33.09 | +$1.58 | 37% 991-1715 (2706) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 87.8¢ | $150.63 | $25.18 | +$13.27 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $22.71 | $24.78 | +$2.06 | 42% 1030-1415 (2445) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $7.51 | $7.51 | +$0 | 48% 2157-2304 (4461) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $4.5 | $4.4 | -$0.1 | 59% 3775-2600 (6375) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.61 | $1.48 | -$0.13 | 46% 2743-3256 (5999) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $1.02 | $1.12 | +$0.1 | 53% 1811-1610 (3421) |
Invested
$159.62
Value
$160.61
PnL
+$0.99
Record
37%
367-618 (985)
Invested
$154.11
Value
$156.71
PnL
+$2.6
Record
36%
975-1701 (2676)
Invested
$103.47
Value
$103.47
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
936-1036 (1972)
Invested
$119.91
Value
$75.71
PnL
-$44.2
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Invested
$31.51
Value
$33.09
PnL
+$1.58
Record
37%
991-1715 (2706)
Invested
$150.63
Value
$25.18
PnL
+$13.27
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
Invested
$22.71
Value
$24.78
PnL
+$2.06
Record
42%
1030-1415 (2445)
Invested
$7.51
Value
$7.51
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2157-2304 (4461)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.4
PnL
-$0.1
Record
59%
3775-2600 (6375)
Invested
$1.61
Value
$1.48
PnL
-$0.13
Record
46%
2743-3256 (5999)
Invested
$1.02
Value
$1.12
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
1811-1610 (3421)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.