Sweden vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 55¢ · $910 held · ends Nov 14

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$910.42

Combined PnL

$11.83

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 54.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$418.89

Total Shares769

Combined PnL+$14.42

No8 traders

Total Value$274.18

Total Shares540

Combined PnL-$2.59

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Yesavg 52¢	$290.79	$304.77	+$13.98	29% 11-27 (38)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 47.8¢	$227.32	$217.34	-$9.98	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
└ No leg	Noavg 47.8¢	$144.13	$135.61	-$8.52
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52.9¢	$83.19	$81.72	-$1.46
0xheavy888	Yesavg 54¢	$104.07	$105.03	+$0.96	54% 503-421 (924)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 47.8¢	$76.13	$73.84	-$2.29	42% 1008-1381 (2389)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$59.37	$58.72	-$0.65	36% 950-1657 (2607)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 45.2¢	$113.93	$57.56	+$0.42	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$45.28	$45.78	+$0.5	60% 714-484 (1198)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$15.72	$15.9	+$0.17	55% 474-384 (858)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 48.6¢	$12.77	$10.65	-$0.49	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$9.36	$9.26	-$0.1	37% 977-1669 (2646)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$9.62	$9.09	-$0.52	50% 73-72 (145)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$2.64	$2.48	-$0.17	48% 2109-2267 (4376)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Yes

Invested

$290.79

Value

$304.77

PnL

+$13.98

Record

29%

11-27 (38)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$227.32

Value

$217.34

PnL

-$9.98

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

Both legs:

Invested

$104.07

Value

$105.03

PnL

+$0.96

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$76.13

Value

$73.84

PnL

-$2.29

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$59.37

Value

$58.72

PnL

-$0.65

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$113.93

Value

$57.56

PnL

+$0.42

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$45.28

Value

$45.78

PnL

+$0.5

Record

60%

714-484 (1198)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$15.72

Value

$15.9

PnL

+$0.17

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$12.77

Value

$10.65

PnL

-$0.49

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$9.36

Value

$9.26

PnL

-$0.1

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.62

Value

$9.09

PnL

-$0.52

Record

50%

73-72 (145)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.17

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.