Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-11-14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 87¢ · $323 held · ends Nov 14

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$322.54

Combined PnL

-$5.77

Smart Money Entry

84.5¢ → 86.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$241.78

Total Shares280

Combined PnL-$5.79

Yes4 traders

Total Value$80.77

Total Shares538

Combined PnL+$0.02

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 85¢	$113.39	$112.72	-$0.67	62% 1024-638 (1662)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$77.36	$77.36	+$0	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 84¢	$48.09	$48.38	+$0.29	56% 426-340 (766)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 84¢	$53.33	$47.6	-$5.73	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 84¢	$21	$21.25	+$0.25	59% 3728-2540 (6268)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 84¢	$11.76	$11.83	+$0.07	32% 92-195 (287)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$2.18	$2.18	-$0	43% 920-1244 (2164)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.88	$0.88	-$0	52% 66-62 (128)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.33	$0.35	+$0.02	53% 1572-1421 (2993)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$113.39

Value

$112.72

PnL

-$0.67

Record

62%

1024-638 (1662)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.36

Value

$77.36

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$48.09

Value

$48.38

PnL

+$0.29

Record

56%

426-340 (766)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$53.33

Value

$47.6

PnL

-$5.73

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$21.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

59%

3728-2540 (6268)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$11.76

Value

$11.83

PnL

+$0.07

Record

32%

92-195 (287)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.18

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

920-1244 (2164)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

66-62 (128)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.