Slovakia vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 1.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 75¢ · $916 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 38%
$915.89
$21.38
76.4¢ → 74.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 77¢ | $308 | $306 | -$2 | 53% 390-340 (730) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 23.4¢ | $201.59 | $219.6 | +$18.02 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Overavg 76¢ | $153.55 | $152.59 | -$0.96 | 61% 1004-631 (1635) |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 23¢ | $103.21 | $109.94 | +$6.73 | 35% 736-1380 (2116) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 75.3¢ | $92.6 | $95.26 | +$2.65 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 24.8¢ | $29.73 | $26.38 | -$3.35 | 43% 809-1065 (1874) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $5.23 | $5.57 | +$0.34 | 35% 750-1386 (2136) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 24¢ | $0.6 | $0.55 | -$0.05 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
0xheavy888Invested
$308
Value
$306
PnL
-$2
Record
53%
390-340 (730)
Invested
$201.59
Value
$219.6
PnL
+$18.02
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Invested
$153.55
Value
$152.59
PnL
-$0.96
Record
61%
1004-631 (1635)
Invested
$103.21
Value
$109.94
PnL
+$6.73
Record
35%
736-1380 (2116)
Invested
$92.6
Value
$95.26
PnL
+$2.65
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
Invested
$29.73
Value
$26.38
PnL
-$3.35
Record
43%
809-1065 (1874)
Invested
$5.23
Value
$5.57
PnL
+$0.34
Record
35%
750-1386 (2136)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$0.05
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.