Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (74%). 18 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Slovakia win on 2026-11-13?

18 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 27¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 13

Yes74¢No26¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$221.76

Smart Money Entry

27.5¢ → 26.5¢

-4% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 22 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No18 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares15,633

Combined PnL-$222.99

Yes4 traders

Total Value$80.74

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$1.23

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 81% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 28¢	$937.18	$870.24	-$66.94	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 27.6¢	$789.28	$743.75	-$45.53	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 27.4¢	$767.1	$728.79	-$38.31	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 27.3¢	$669.99	$636.99	-$33	33% 251-499 (750)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 27¢	$216	$208	-$8	22% 266-965 (1231)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR	Noavg 27¢	$213.44	$205.54	-$7.91	45% 13-16 (29)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 27.5¢	$173.78	$164.34	-$9.44	43% 808-1065 (1873)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 28¢	$119.28	$110.76	-$8.52	35% 749-1385 (2134)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Noavg 26.3¢	$109.81	$108.4	-$1.41	47% 189-212 (401)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$68.42	$63.53	-$4.89	35% 735-1379 (2114)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$61.94	$62.76	+$0.82	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 27.8¢	$56.63	$53.01	-$3.62	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$45.9	$42.62	-$3.28	34% 735-1404 (2139)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 26.3¢	$46.48	$38.93	+$12.43	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$38.36	$35.62	-$2.74	56% 307-245 (552)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$36.78	$35.41	-$1.36	53% 1030-921 (1951)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$13	$13	+$0	26% 250-703 (953)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$10	$10.14	+$0.14	10% 11-100 (111)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$3.97	$4.14	+$0.17	61% 1003-631 (1634)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.7	+$0.1	64% 177-101 (278)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$3.89	$3.61	-$0.28	30% 77-180 (257)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$2.94	$2.73	-$0.21	49% 1668-1706 (3374)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$937.18

Value

$870.24

PnL

-$66.94

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$789.28

Value

$743.75

PnL

-$45.53

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$767.1

Value

$728.79

PnL

-$38.31

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$669.99

Value

$636.99

PnL

-$33

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$216

Value

$208

PnL

-$8

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR

Invested

$213.44

Value

$205.54

PnL

-$7.91

Record

45%

13-16 (29)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$173.78

Value

$164.34

PnL

-$9.44

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$119.28

Value

$110.76

PnL

-$8.52

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Invested

$109.81

Value

$108.4

PnL

-$1.41

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$68.42

Value

$63.53

PnL

-$4.89

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.94

Value

$62.76

PnL

+$0.82

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$56.63

Value

$53.01

PnL

-$3.62

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$45.9

Value

$42.62

PnL

-$3.28

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$46.48

Value

$38.93

PnL

+$12.43

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$38.36

Value

$35.62

PnL

-$2.74

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$36.78

Value

$35.41

PnL

-$1.36

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$13

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10.14

PnL

+$0.14

Record

10%

11-100 (111)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.97

Value

$4.14

PnL

+$0.17

Record

61%

1003-631 (1634)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

64%

177-101 (278)

OddstormCTR<$100

Invested

$3.89

Value

$3.61

PnL

-$0.28

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$2.94

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.21

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 22 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 81% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.