Spread: Slovakia (-1.5)

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Faroe Islands (85%) · Faroe Islands at 53¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 13

Slovakia48¢Faroe Islands52¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Faroe Islands

Consensus Traders

Faroe Islands 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

-$136.31

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 52.5¢

-1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralFaroe Islands at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Faroe Islands

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Slovakia48%

Faroe Islands53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Faroe Islands11 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares14,878

Combined PnL-$153.27

Slovakia2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,110

Combined PnL+$16.96

Faroe Islands — 85%Slovakia — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on Faroe Islands. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFaroe Islands 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Faroe Islands 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DV dv-pm	Faroe Islandsavg 53¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	-$97.13	40% 17-26 (43)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Slovakiaavg 47.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$17.39	50% 2262-2219 (4481)
JO jole24	Faroe Islandsavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$20	45% 18-22 (40)
GO GoalLineGhost	Faroe Islandsavg 52.8¢	$989.3	$976.86	-$12.44	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Faroe Islandsavg 54¢	$432	$416	-$16	22% 267-965 (1232)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Slovakiaavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	75% 112-37 (149)
└ Faroe Islands leg	Faroe Islandsavg 50¢	$100	$104	+$4
└ Slovakia leg	Slovakiaavg 50¢	$100	$96	-$4
LE LeLynxMalynx	Faroe Islandsavg 53.7¢	$131.1	$127.22	-$3.88	56% 309-246 (555)
38 38791873984189<$100	Faroe Islandsavg 53¢	$98.6	$91.31	-$1.29	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Slovakiaavg 47¢	$47.61	$47.18	-$0.43	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
FO forecastication4<$100	Faroe Islandsavg 53¢	$43.46	$42.64	-$0.82	31% 134-299 (433)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Faroe Islandsavg 53¢	$30.21	$29.64	-$0.57	47% 191-212 (403)
GH ghorrock<$100	Faroe Islandsavg 52.2¢	$35.56	$26.54	-$0.08	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Faroe Islandsavg 55¢	$26.37	$25.44	-$0.93	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
SE sentrio<$100	Faroe Islandsavg 55¢	$7.34	$7.21	-$0.13	43% 809-1065 (1874)

dv-pm

Faroe Islands

Invested

$5,148.13

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$97.13

Record

40%

17-26 (43)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Slovakia

Invested

$1,082.46

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$17.39

Record

50%

2262-2219 (4481)

jole24

Faroe Islands

Invested

$1,060

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$20

Record

45%

18-22 (40)

GoalLineGhost

Faroe Islands

Invested

$989.3

Value

$976.86

PnL

-$12.44

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Faroe Islands

Invested

$432

Value

$416

PnL

-$16

Record

22%

267-965 (1232)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Slovakia

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

Both legs:

Faroe Islands$10050¢+$4

Slovakia$10050¢-$4

LeLynxMalynx

Faroe Islands

Invested

$131.1

Value

$127.22

PnL

-$3.88

Record

56%

309-246 (555)

38791873984189<$100

Faroe Islands

Invested

$98.6

Value

$91.31

PnL

-$1.29

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

suntoriCTR<$100

Slovakia

Invested

$47.61

Value

$47.18

PnL

-$0.43

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

forecastication4<$100

Faroe Islands

Invested

$43.46

Value

$42.64

PnL

-$0.82

Record

31%

134-299 (433)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Faroe Islands

Invested

$30.21

Value

$29.64

PnL

-$0.57

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

ghorrock<$100

Faroe Islands

Invested

$35.56

Value

$26.54

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

Flaznorp<$100

Faroe Islands

Invested

$26.37

Value

$25.44

PnL

-$0.93

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

sentrio<$100

Faroe Islands

Invested

$7.34

Value

$7.21

PnL

-$0.13

Record

43%

809-1065 (1874)

Research grade

NeutralFaroe Islands at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Faroe Islands

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on Faroe Islands. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFaroe Islands 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Faroe Islands 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Faroe Islands wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.