Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-11-13?

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 92¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 13

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$50.11

Smart Money Entry

91.5¢ → 91.5¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares8,371

Combined PnL+$29.43

Yes3 traders

Total Value$549.78

Total Shares6,449

Combined PnL+$20.68

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Noavg 91.4¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$18.38	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 91.6¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$3.27	35% 749-1385 (2134)
GC GC-P	Noavg 91.6¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$8.5	33% 251-499 (750)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 91.4¢	$622.29	$623.27	+$0.98	36% 761-1361 (2122)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 8.2¢	$421.67	$436.75	+$15.08	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Yesavg 8¢	$99.82	$106.05	+$6.24	30% 10-23 (33)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 92¢	$99.99	$99.99	+$0	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Noavg 91¢	$82.35	$83.25	+$0.9	61% 1003-631 (1634)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 91¢	$76.44	$76.86	+$0.42	47% 189-212 (401)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 91¢	$60.46	$61.64	+$1.18	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$58.06	$58.84	+$0.78	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 90¢	$54	$55.2	+$1.2	30% 77-180 (257)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 91¢	$27.8	$27.95	+$0.15	26% 250-703 (953)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 90¢	$9	$9.2	+$0.2	56% 307-245 (552)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$7.61	$6.98	-$0.63	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

NM-P

Invested

$2,785.47

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$18.38

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

LightParadox

Invested

$2,005.43

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$3.27

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

GC-P

Invested

$1,833.17

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$8.5

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

MadridTime

Invested

$622.29

Value

$623.27

PnL

+$0.98

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$421.67

Value

$436.75

PnL

+$15.08

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Yes

Invested

$99.82

Value

$106.05

PnL

+$6.24

Record

30%

10-23 (33)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$99.99

Value

$99.99

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

darkumbreon88<$100

Invested

$82.35

Value

$83.25

PnL

+$0.9

Record

61%

1003-631 (1634)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$76.44

Value

$76.86

PnL

+$0.42

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$60.46

Value

$61.64

PnL

+$1.18

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$58.06

Value

$58.84

PnL

+$0.78

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$54

Value

$55.2

PnL

+$1.2

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$27.8

Value

$27.95

PnL

+$0.15

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.61

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$0.63

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.