Will Slovakia vs. Faroe Islands end in a draw?
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 82¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 55%
$1.3K
$0.41
80.9¢ → 81.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OD Oddstorm | Noavg 81¢ | $604.37 | $600.84 | -$3.53 | 30% 77-180 (257) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 81¢ | $299.38 | $259.68 | +$0.8 | 34% 736-1405 (2141) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 80¢ | $235.66 | $240.35 | +$4.7 | 59% 3648-2489 (6137) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $83.45 | $85.77 | +$2.32 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $46.33 | $46.61 | +$0.28 | 53% 390-340 (730) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $50.5 | $46.3 | -$4.2 | 48% 2787-3042 (5829) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 80.4¢ | $27.07 | $27.79 | +$0.71 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $6.66 | $6.48 | -$0.19 | 53% 472-427 (899) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $4.89 | $4.63 | -$0.26 | 36% 763-1361 (2124) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $3.43 | $3.33 | -$0.1 | 49% 1669-1706 (3375) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $2.45 | $2.32 | -$0.13 | 35% 750-1386 (2136) |
Invested
$604.37
Value
$600.84
PnL
-$3.53
Record
30%
77-180 (257)
Invested
$299.38
Value
$259.68
PnL
+$0.8
Record
34%
736-1405 (2141)
Invested
$235.66
Value
$240.35
PnL
+$4.7
Record
59%
3648-2489 (6137)
Invested
$83.45
Value
$85.77
PnL
+$2.32
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$46.33
Value
$46.61
PnL
+$0.28
Record
53%
390-340 (730)
Invested
$50.5
Value
$46.3
PnL
-$4.2
Record
48%
2787-3042 (5829)
Invested
$27.07
Value
$27.79
PnL
+$0.71
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$6.66
Value
$6.48
PnL
-$0.19
Record
53%
472-427 (899)
Invested
$4.89
Value
$4.63
PnL
-$0.26
Record
36%
763-1361 (2124)
Invested
$3.43
Value
$3.33
PnL
-$0.1
Record
49%
1669-1706 (3375)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.32
PnL
-$0.13
Record
35%
750-1386 (2136)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.