Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Slovakia vs. Faroe Islands: Both Teams to Score

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 44¢ · $877 held · ends Nov 13

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$877.26

Combined PnL

-$4.97

Smart Money Entry

43.2¢ → 43.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$563.7

Total Shares1,303

Combined PnL+$1

No4 traders

Total Value$313.56

Total Shares565

Combined PnL-$5.96

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$229.4	$231.96	+$2.56	35% 750-1386 (2136)
0xheavy888	Noavg 56¢	$223.12	$219.17	-$3.94	53% 390-340 (730)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 44¢	$174.54	$172.56	-$1.98	35% 736-1380 (2116)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 42.6¢	$88.12	$87.88	-$0.24	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 57.1¢	$77.98	$75.82	-$2.16	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.9¢	$33.81	$34.68	+$0.88	61% 1004-631 (1635)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$25.96	$25.66	-$0.3	36% 763-1361 (2124)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 59.1¢	$9.52	$9.34	-$0.18	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 56¢	$8.91	$9.23	+$0.32	56% 309-246 (555)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$6.15	$6.3	+$0.15	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$2.58	$2.55	-$0.03	34% 736-1405 (2141)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.13	-$0.02	49% 1669-1706 (3375)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$229.4

Value

$231.96

PnL

+$2.56

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

0xheavy888

Invested

$223.12

Value

$219.17

PnL

-$3.94

Record

53%

390-340 (730)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$174.54

Value

$172.56

PnL

-$1.98

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.12

Value

$87.88

PnL

-$0.24

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$77.98

Value

$75.82

PnL

-$2.16

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.81

Value

$34.68

PnL

+$0.88

Record

61%

1004-631 (1635)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.96

Value

$25.66

PnL

-$0.3

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

suntori<$100

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.34

PnL

-$0.18

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$8.91

Value

$9.23

PnL

+$0.32

Record

56%

309-246 (555)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.15

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.58

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.03

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.