San Marino vs. Belarus: O/U 4.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 82¢ · $692 held · ends Nov 12

Over18¢Under82¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$691.87

Combined PnL

$10.15

Smart Money Entry

82.1¢ → 82¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$457.97

Total Shares559

Combined PnL-$0.46

Over4 traders

Total Value$233.9

Total Shares1,211

Combined PnL+$10.61

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Underavg 82¢	$228.99	$228.99	-$0	54% 281-238 (519)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 17.5¢	$168.76	$178.08	+$9.32	51% 2572-2488 (5060)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 82¢	$123	$123	-$0	48% 2245-2429 (4674)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 17.4¢	$46.56	$47.72	+$1.16	41% 562-806 (1368)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 83¢	$34.03	$33.62	-$0.41	52% 353-330 (683)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 82¢	$31.98	$31.98	-$0	52% 192-174 (366)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 82¢	$31.72	$31.72	-$0	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 82.5¢	$8.72	$8.67	-$0.05	54% 997-856 (1853)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$4.77	$4.9	+$0.13	49% 1260-1292 (2552)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$3.2	$3.2	+$0	33% 556-1140 (1696)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$228.99

Value

$228.99

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

281-238 (519)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$168.76

Value

$178.08

PnL

+$9.32

Record

51%

2572-2488 (5060)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$123

Value

$123

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

2245-2429 (4674)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46.56

Value

$47.72

PnL

+$1.16

Record

41%

562-806 (1368)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$34.03

Value

$33.62

PnL

-$0.41

Record

52%

353-330 (683)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.98

Value

$31.98

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

192-174 (366)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$31.72

Value

$31.72

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$8.72

Value

$8.67

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.13

Record

49%

1260-1292 (2552)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

556-1140 (1696)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.