San Marino vs. Belarus: O/U 3.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 55¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$22.81

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 55¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$246.11

Total Shares459

Combined PnL+$12.25

Over3 traders

Total Value$89.51

Total Shares143

Combined PnL+$10.56

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 39.6¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$389.37	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.6¢	$883.12	$1.2K	+$321.06
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.4¢	$808.3	$876.61	+$68.31
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 63¢	$83.04	$69.81	-$13.23	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 50.6¢	$201.12	$57.59	+$9.21	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
CI cigarettes<$100	Underavg 25¢	$26.49	$56.15	+$29.67	53% 6251-5536 (11787)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$49.57	$53.77	+$4.21	38% 15-25 (40)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 65¢	$33.8	$27.56	-$6.24	42% 97-133 (230)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 65¢	$31.85	$25.97	-$5.88	54% 211-181 (392)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$17.29	$23.71	+$6.42	34% 592-1164 (1756)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$17.54	$12.02	-$0.07	54% 1032-892 (1924)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 61¢	$9.15	$7.88	-$1.28	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 53¢	$1.16	$1.16	-$0	48% 590-645 (1235)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,691.42

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$389.37

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

Both legs:

Under$883.1239.6¢+$321.06

Over$808.342.4¢+$68.31

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$83.04

Value

$69.81

PnL

-$13.23

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$201.12

Value

$57.59

PnL

+$9.21

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

cigarettes<$100

Under

Invested

$26.49

Value

$56.15

PnL

+$29.67

Record

53%

6251-5536 (11787)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.57

Value

$53.77

PnL

+$4.21

Record

38%

15-25 (40)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$33.8

Value

$27.56

PnL

-$6.24

Record

42%

97-133 (230)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.85

Value

$25.97

PnL

-$5.88

Record

54%

211-181 (392)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.29

Value

$23.71

PnL

+$6.42

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.54

Value

$12.02

PnL

-$0.07

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$9.15

Value

$7.88

PnL

-$1.28

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.16

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.