San Marino vs. Belarus: O/U 2.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 83¢ · $688 held · ended Nov 12

Over83¢Under17¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$687.86

Combined PnL

$5.31

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 82.5¢

+25% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over83%

Under18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$174.94

Total Shares214

Combined PnL+$34.01

Under5 traders

Total Value$41.44

Total Shares205

Combined PnL-$28.7

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 33.6¢	$522.34	$471.47	-$50.87	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.4¢	$208.17	$293.78	+$85.61
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.6¢	$314.17	$177.69	-$136.48
38 38791873984189	Overavg 68.4¢	$108.64	$129.4	+$20.76	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 58¢	$23.77	$33.61	+$9.84	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$28.7	$12.6	-$16.1	54% 211-181 (392)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 14.2¢	$8.09	$10.54	+$2.46	38% 15-25 (40)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 41.8¢	$15.69	$9.59	-$6.11	41% 589-849 (1438)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 59¢	$4.72	$6.56	+$1.84	52% 367-339 (706)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 58¢	$3.8	$5.37	+$1.57	47% 1704-1945 (3649)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 41.8¢	$12.32	$5.3	-$7.01	54% 1032-892 (1924)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$5.34	$3.41	-$1.94	48% 590-645 (1235)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$522.34

Value

$471.47

PnL

-$50.87

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

Both legs:

Over$208.1757.4¢+$85.61

Under$314.1733.6¢-$136.48

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$108.64

Value

$129.4

PnL

+$20.76

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$23.77

Value

$33.61

PnL

+$9.84

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.7

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$16.1

Record

54%

211-181 (392)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.09

Value

$10.54

PnL

+$2.46

Record

38%

15-25 (40)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.69

Value

$9.59

PnL

-$6.11

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$4.72

Value

$6.56

PnL

+$1.84

Record

52%

367-339 (706)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$3.8

Value

$5.37

PnL

+$1.57

Record

47%

1704-1945 (3649)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.32

Value

$5.3

PnL

-$7.01

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.34

Value

$3.41

PnL

-$1.94

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.