San Marino vs. Belarus: O/U 1.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 80¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over80¢Under20¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$98.15

Smart Money Entry

81.9¢ → 80¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over80%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares4,100

Combined PnL+$81.55

Under6 traders

Total Value$658.56

Total Shares3,538

Combined PnL+$16.6

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87	Overavg 82¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$78.16	58% 47-34 (81)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 18¢	$341.92	$351.33	+$9.41	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 18¢	$195.03	$200.45	+$5.42	46% 443-515 (958)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 80¢	$120.82	$123.23	+$2.41	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$67.68	$69.56	+$1.88	40% 80-118 (198)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 80¢	$43.96	$44.93	+$0.97	41% 562-807 (1369)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 18.6¢	$29.88	$29.68	-$0.2	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 18.3¢	$6.57	$6.64	+$0.07	54% 997-856 (1853)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$0.88	$0.9	+$0.02	40% 68-100 (168)

Zzzz87

Over

Invested

$3,200.36

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$78.16

Record

58%

47-34 (81)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$341.92

Value

$351.33

PnL

+$9.41

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$195.03

Value

$200.45

PnL

+$5.42

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$120.82

Value

$123.23

PnL

+$2.41

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.68

Value

$69.56

PnL

+$1.88

Record

40%

80-118 (198)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$43.96

Value

$44.93

PnL

+$0.97

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.68

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.57

Value

$6.64

PnL

+$0.07

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0.02

Record

40%

68-100 (168)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.