Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Belarus, while the market favors San Marino (53%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Belarus (-2.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Belarus (46%) · Belarus at 47¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 12

Belarus47¢San Marino53¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Belarus

Consensus Traders

Belarus 46%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.5K

Combined PnL

$136.1

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 47¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBelarus at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Belarus

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors San Marino 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Belarus47%

San Marino53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Belarus6 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares12,202

Combined PnL+$136.27

San Marino7 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,101

Combined PnL-$0.16

Belarus — 46%San Marino — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Belarus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBelarus 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Belarus 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GG ggA11xcrCTR	Belarusavg 47¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$56.14	— 1-6 (7)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	San Marinoavg 53¢	$4.7K	$4.9K	+$182.66	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
└ San Marino leg	San Marinoavg 53¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$104.87
└ Belarus leg	Belarusavg 43.3¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$77.8
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Belarusavg 41¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$166.15	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
└ Belarus leg	Belarusavg 41¢	$953.45	$1.2K	+$244.02
└ San Marino leg	San Marinoavg 53¢	$918.3	$840.42	-$77.88
MO mouzsynapse	San Marinoavg 53¢	$898.53	$932.44	+$33.91	40% 68-100 (168)
0xheavy888	San Marinoavg 54.8¢	$876	$880	+$4	54% 281-239 (520)
P1 P1kaso	San Marinoavg 58.5¢	$585	$550	-$35	1% 1-107 (108)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Belarusavg 41¢	$275.04	$301.87	+$26.83	33% 556-1141 (1697)
LI LimousinCTR	Belarusavg 43¢	$201.24	$222.06	+$20.82	33% 539-1116 (1655)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Belarusavg 44¢	$188.22	$203.19	+$14.97	51% 2082-2008 (4090)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	San Marinoavg 53¢	$130.71	$135.76	+$5.04	40% 80-118 (198)
38 38791873984189	San Marinoavg 54.3¢	$125.43	$127.05	+$1.62	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
LE LeLynxMalynx	San Marinoavg 53.4¢	$109.53	$112.75	+$3.22	52% 192-174 (366)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Belarusavg 41¢	$51.14	$66.65	+$15.5	49% 1261-1293 (2554)
GH ghorrock<$100	San Marinoavg 56.2¢	$77.69	$56.35	-$12.95	54% 997-856 (1853)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Belarusavg 40¢	$16.01	$18.01	+$2	41% 562-807 (1369)

ggA11xcrCTR

Belarus

Invested

$4,919.23

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$56.14

Record

—

1-6 (7)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

San Marino

Invested

$4,738.59

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$182.66

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

Both legs:

San Marino$2,787.2553¢+$104.87

Belarus$1,951.3443.3¢+$77.8

FlaznorpARB<$100

Belarus

Invested

$1,879.96

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$166.15

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

Both legs:

Belarus$953.4541¢+$244.02

San Marino$918.353¢-$77.88

mouzsynapse

San Marino

Invested

$898.53

Value

$932.44

PnL

+$33.91

Record

40%

68-100 (168)

0xheavy888

San Marino

Invested

$876

Value

$880

PnL

+$4

Record

54%

281-239 (520)

P1kaso

San Marino

Invested

$585

Value

$550

PnL

-$35

Record

1-107 (108)

LightParadoxCTR

Belarus

Invested

$275.04

Value

$301.87

PnL

+$26.83

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

LimousinCTR

Belarus

Invested

$201.24

Value

$222.06

PnL

+$20.82

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Belarus

Invested

$188.22

Value

$203.19

PnL

+$14.97

Record

51%

2082-2008 (4090)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

San Marino

Invested

$130.71

Value

$135.76

PnL

+$5.04

Record

40%

80-118 (198)

38791873984189

San Marino

Invested

$125.43

Value

$127.05

PnL

+$1.62

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

LeLynxMalynx

San Marino

Invested

$109.53

Value

$112.75

PnL

+$3.22

Record

52%

192-174 (366)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Belarus

Invested

$51.14

Value

$66.65

PnL

+$15.5

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

ghorrock<$100

San Marino

Invested

$77.69

Value

$56.35

PnL

-$12.95

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

sentrioCTR<$100

Belarus

Invested

$16.01

Value

$18.01

PnL

+$2

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

Research grade

NeutralBelarus at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Belarus

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors San Marino 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Belarus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBelarus 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Belarus 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Belarus wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.