Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold San Marino, while the market favors Belarus (75%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Belarus (-1.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold San Marino (58%) · San Marino at 25¢ · $772 held · ended Nov 12

Belarus75¢San Marino25¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

San Marino

Consensus Traders

San Marino 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$772.49

Combined PnL

-$8.92

Smart Money Entry

32.9¢ → 25¢

-24% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSan Marino at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

San Marino

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Belarus 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Belarus75%

San Marino25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

San Marino7 traders

Total Value$190.69

Total Shares628

Combined PnL-$21.31

Belarus5 traders

Total Value$164.25

Total Shares223

Combined PnL+$12.39

San Marino — 58%Belarus — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+29 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on San Marino. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSan Marino 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000San Marino 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	San Marinoavg 34.3¢	$542.29	$417.54	-$124.75	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
└ San Marino leg	San Marinoavg 34.3¢	$439.79	$301.66	-$138.12
└ Belarus leg	Belarusavg 67.7¢	$102.51	$115.88	+$13.37
SE sentrioCTR	San Marinoavg 34.4¢	$109.42	$96.07	-$13.35	41% 562-807 (1369)
0xheavy888<$100	Belarusavg 64¢	$86.36	$94.45	+$8.1	54% 281-239 (520)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	San Marinoavg 31¢	$52.72	$51.87	-$0.85	40% 68-100 (168)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Belarusavg 65¢	$31.85	$34.3	+$2.45	52% 192-174 (366)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Belarusavg 67.6¢	$22.55	$22.86	+$0.31	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	San Marinoavg 32¢	$28.52	$20.94	-$7.58	33% 556-1141 (1697)
nigiri99<$100	Belarusavg 66.4¢	$9.96	$11.48	+$1.51	52% 353-330 (683)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	San Marinoavg 31¢	$8.94	$8.8	-$0.14	54% 997-856 (1853)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	San Marinoavg 31¢	$91.29	$8.14	+$0.84	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	San Marinoavg 32¢	$3.39	$3.23	-$0.16	34% 564-1116 (1680)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	San Marinoavg 32¢	$1.72	$1.64	-$0.08	33% 539-1116 (1655)
SU suntori<$100	Belarusavg 68¢	$1.14	$1.17	+$0.03	47% 1666-1892 (3558)

FlaznorpARB<$100

San Marino

Invested

$542.29

Value

$417.54

PnL

-$124.75

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

Both legs:

San Marino$439.7934.3¢-$138.12

Belarus$102.5167.7¢+$13.37

sentrioCTR

San Marino

Invested

$109.42

Value

$96.07

PnL

-$13.35

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

0xheavy888<$100

Belarus

Invested

$86.36

Value

$94.45

PnL

+$8.1

Record

54%

281-239 (520)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

San Marino

Invested

$52.72

Value

$51.87

PnL

-$0.85

Record

40%

68-100 (168)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Belarus

Invested

$31.85

Value

$34.3

PnL

+$2.45

Record

52%

192-174 (366)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Belarus

Invested

$22.55

Value

$22.86

PnL

+$0.31

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

San Marino

Invested

$28.52

Value

$20.94

PnL

-$7.58

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

nigiri99<$100

Belarus

Invested

$9.96

Value

$11.48

PnL

+$1.51

Record

52%

353-330 (683)

ghorrockCTR<$100

San Marino

Invested

$8.94

Value

$8.8

PnL

-$0.14

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

38791873984189CTR<$100

San Marino

Invested

$91.29

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$0.84

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

San Marino

Invested

$3.39

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$0.16

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

LimousinCTR<$100

San Marino

Invested

$1.72

Value

$1.64

PnL

-$0.08

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

suntori<$100

Belarus

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.17

PnL

+$0.03

Record

47%

1666-1892 (3558)

Research grade

AvoidSan Marino at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

San Marino

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Belarus 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+29 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on San Marino. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSan Marino 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000San Marino 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that San Marino wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.