Will San Marino win on 2026-11-12?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
2 arb excluded
$2.0K
$0.35
96.4¢ → 96.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Noavg 96.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$0 | 31% 388-857 (1245) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 96.3¢ | $305.36 | $305.81 | +$0.45 | 30% 384-878 (1262) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 96.3¢ | $233.78 | $233.99 | +$0.21 | 31% 393-875 (1268) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $165.08 | $162.3 | -$2.78 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 96.2¢ | $96.19 | $96.49 | +$0.3 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $68.89 | $65.81 | -$3.08 | |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $126.82 | $107.81 | -$1.89 | 48% 1398-1531 (2929) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 95.9¢ | $56.53 | $56.9 | +$0.37 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $55.16 | $50.91 | -$2.26 | |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $24.21 | $24.11 | -$0.1 | 38% 355-588 (943) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $20.18 | $20.16 | -$0.02 | 30% 383-882 (1265) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $3.55 | $3.45 | -$0.1 | 59% 3477-2368 (5845) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $3.29 | $3.2 | -$0.09 | 20% 98-382 (480) |
Invested
$1,116.84
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$0
Record
31%
388-857 (1245)
Invested
$305.36
Value
$305.81
PnL
+$0.45
Record
30%
384-878 (1262)
Invested
$233.78
Value
$233.99
PnL
+$0.21
Record
31%
393-875 (1268)
Invested
$165.08
Value
$162.3
PnL
-$2.78
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
Both legs:
Invested
$126.82
Value
$107.81
PnL
-$1.89
Record
48%
1398-1531 (2929)
Both legs:
Invested
$24.21
Value
$24.11
PnL
-$0.1
Record
38%
355-588 (943)
Invested
$20.18
Value
$20.16
PnL
-$0.02
Record
30%
383-882 (1265)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.45
PnL
-$0.1
Record
59%
3477-2368 (5845)
Invested
$3.29
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$0.09
Record
20%
98-382 (480)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.