San Marino leading at halftime?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 96¢ · $551 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$550.59
$0.48
95.3¢ → 95.7¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.3¢ | $234.39 | $234.83 | +$0.44 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 95.3¢ | $117.15 | $117.58 | +$0.43 | 33% 553-1132 (1685) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $66.83 | $66.95 | +$0.12 | 32% 538-1125 (1663) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $59.9 | $60.12 | +$0.22 | 33% 534-1108 (1642) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $47.65 | $47.74 | +$0.09 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $13.04 | $12.56 | -$0.48 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $6.1 | $5.97 | -$0.14 | 55% 1640-1346 (2986) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $3.3 | $3.16 | -$0.14 | 41% 544-784 (1328) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $1.75 | $1.68 | -$0.07 | 49% 1228-1254 (2482) |
Invested
$234.39
Value
$234.83
PnL
+$0.44
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$117.15
Value
$117.58
PnL
+$0.43
Record
33%
553-1132 (1685)
Invested
$66.83
Value
$66.95
PnL
+$0.12
Record
32%
538-1125 (1663)
Invested
$59.9
Value
$60.12
PnL
+$0.22
Record
33%
534-1108 (1642)
Invested
$47.65
Value
$47.74
PnL
+$0.09
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
Invested
$13.04
Value
$12.56
PnL
-$0.48
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$5.97
PnL
-$0.14
Record
55%
1640-1346 (2986)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$3.16
PnL
-$0.14
Record
41%
544-784 (1328)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.68
PnL
-$0.07
Record
49%
1228-1254 (2482)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.