Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: San Marino 0 - 3 Belarus?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 28¢ · $484 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 75%
$484.19
$187.08
16¢ → 28.5¢
+78% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 16¢ | $200.37 | $369.43 | +$169.06 | 32% 542-1134 (1676) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $48.94 | $48.94 | +$0 | 34% 564-1116 (1680) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $21.81 | $21.81 | +$0 | 33% 556-1141 (1697) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $44.59 | $17.92 | +$17.51 | 48% 2255-2437 (4692) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $13.02 | $13.02 | +$0 | 54% 997-856 (1853) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $6.82 | $7.25 | +$0.44 | 51% 2573-2489 (5062) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $4.76 | $4.76 | +$0 | 47% 1666-1892 (3558) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $1 | $1.06 | +$0.06 | 49% 1261-1293 (2554) |
Invested
$200.37
Value
$369.43
PnL
+$169.06
Record
32%
542-1134 (1676)
Invested
$48.94
Value
$48.94
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
564-1116 (1680)
Invested
$21.81
Value
$21.81
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
556-1141 (1697)
Invested
$44.59
Value
$17.92
PnL
+$17.51
Record
48%
2255-2437 (4692)
Invested
$13.02
Value
$13.02
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
997-856 (1853)
Invested
$6.82
Value
$7.25
PnL
+$0.44
Record
51%
2573-2489 (5062)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.76
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1666-1892 (3558)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.06
PnL
+$0.06
Record
49%
1261-1293 (2554)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.