Exact Score: San Marino 0 - 2 Belarus?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 87¢ · $510 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$509.7
-$13.26
84.1¢ → 87¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 84.6¢ | $351.45 | $259.66 | +$29.55 | 48% 2298-2502 (4800) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $170.41 | $108.87 | -$61.54 | 33% 585-1187 (1772) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.8¢ | $49.01 | $70.97 | +$21.96 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $42.11 | $43.13 | +$1.03 | 54% 1032-892 (1924) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $10.09 | $10.33 | +$0.25 | 41% 589-849 (1438) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $16.11 | $10.29 | -$5.82 | 32% 565-1192 (1757) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.8¢ | $3.05 | $5.11 | +$2.06 | 49% 1307-1343 (2650) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $2.08 | $1.33 | -$0.75 | 34% 592-1164 (1756) |
Invested
$351.45
Value
$259.66
PnL
+$29.55
Record
48%
2298-2502 (4800)
Invested
$170.41
Value
$108.87
PnL
-$61.54
Record
33%
585-1187 (1772)
Invested
$49.01
Value
$70.97
PnL
+$21.96
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
Invested
$42.11
Value
$43.13
PnL
+$1.03
Record
54%
1032-892 (1924)
Invested
$10.09
Value
$10.33
PnL
+$0.25
Record
41%
589-849 (1438)
Invested
$16.11
Value
$10.29
PnL
-$5.82
Record
32%
565-1192 (1757)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$5.11
PnL
+$2.06
Record
49%
1307-1343 (2650)
Invested
$2.08
Value
$1.33
PnL
-$0.75
Record
34%
592-1164 (1756)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.