San Marino vs. Belarus: Both Teams to Score
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 71¢ · $885 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
1 arb excluded
$885.3
-$22.88
67.5¢ → 71¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 69.1¢ | $648.52 | $650.47 | +$1.95 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69.1¢ | $459.52 | $389.02 | -$70.5 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30¢ | $189 | $261.45 | +$72.45 | |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Noavg 67¢ | $175.67 | $153.38 | -$22.29 | 59% 450-313 (763) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 69.3¢ | $137.71 | $25.76 | -$0.62 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $18.81 | $18.81 | +$0 | 31% 438-969 (1407) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 68.5¢ | $20.43 | $16.49 | -$0.33 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $13.63 | $13.63 | -$0 | 31% 444-971 (1415) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $5.59 | $5.59 | +$0 | 40% 438-657 (1095) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $0.82 | $1.17 | +$0.35 | 53% 172-153 (325) |
Invested
$648.52
Value
$650.47
PnL
+$1.95
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
Both legs:
Invested
$175.67
Value
$153.38
PnL
-$22.29
Record
59%
450-313 (763)
Invested
$137.71
Value
$25.76
PnL
-$0.62
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Invested
$18.81
Value
$18.81
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
438-969 (1407)
Invested
$20.43
Value
$16.49
PnL
-$0.33
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
Invested
$13.63
Value
$13.63
PnL
-$0
Record
31%
444-971 (1415)
Invested
$5.59
Value
$5.59
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
438-657 (1095)
Invested
$0.82
Value
$1.17
PnL
+$0.35
Record
53%
172-153 (325)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.