Slovenia vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 88¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 13

Over88¢Under12¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$4.14

Smart Money Entry

88.5¢ → 87.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over88%

Under13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares8,760

Combined PnL-$87.07

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares8,650

Combined PnL+$91.21

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cbs710	Overavg 88.5¢	$7.4K	$7.3K	-$84.99	—
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 11¢	$386.29	$438.96	+$52.68	36% 326-587 (913)
0xheavy888	Overavg 88¢	$351.93	$349.93	-$2	53% 390-340 (730)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 11.8¢	$326.67	$344.72	+$18.05	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 11.7¢	$236.85	$253.13	+$16.28	47% 191-212 (403)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$16.5	$18.75	+$2.25	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 11.8¢	$13.07	$13.85	+$0.78	43% 809-1065 (1874)
HY hydra1248<$100	Overavg 89¢	$13.13	$13.06	-$0.07	76% 147-47 (194)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 11.3¢	$10.61	$11.79	+$1.17	53% 1374-1218 (2592)

Cbs710

Over

Invested

$7,386.81

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$84.99

Record

—

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$386.29

Value

$438.96

PnL

+$52.68

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$351.93

Value

$349.93

PnL

-$2

Record

53%

390-340 (730)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$326.67

Value

$344.72

PnL

+$18.05

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$236.85

Value

$253.13

PnL

+$16.28

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.5

Value

$18.75

PnL

+$2.25

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.07

Value

$13.85

PnL

+$0.78

Record

43%

809-1065 (1874)

hydra1248<$100

Over

Invested

$13.13

Value

$13.06

PnL

-$0.07

Record

76%

147-47 (194)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.61

Value

$11.79

PnL

+$1.17

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.