Will Slovenia win on 2026-11-13?

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 85¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$7.88

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 84.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 16 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,793

Combined PnL+$30.2

Yes9 traders

Total Value$222.6

Total Shares1,576

Combined PnL-$22.32

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-P	Noavg 84.5¢	$782	$795.5	+$13.5	33% 251-499 (750)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 83¢	$610.48	$557.63	+$7.64	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ No leg	Noavg 83¢	$340.52	$346.67	+$7.1
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.5¢	$210.42	$210.96	+$0.54
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 83.8¢	$504.05	$517.08	+$13.04	51% 46-45 (91)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$258.61	$261.07	+$2.46	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ No leg	Noavg 84.7¢	$155.84	$158.3	+$2.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14¢	$102.76	$102.76	-$0
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 15.1¢	$121.67	$112.91	-$8.76	36% 761-1361 (2122)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 83¢	$93.89	$96.92	+$3.03	43% 808-1065 (1873)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Noavg 84¢	$77.09	$78.93	+$1.84	61% 1003-631 (1634)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$74.72	$65.38	-$9.34	62% 73-44 (117)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84¢	$57.03	$46.1	-$1.46	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$12.58	$12.19	-$0.39	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$14.45	$11.9	-$2.55	52% 471-427 (898)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$8	$7.75	-$0.25	26% 250-703 (953)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$8.19	$7.64	-$0.55	35% 749-1385 (2134)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 83¢	$7.24	$7.51	+$0.26	43% 68-91 (159)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 86¢	$4.76	$4.76	+$0	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$2.6	$2.43	-$0.17	35% 735-1379 (2114)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$2.1	$1.73	-$0.37	34% 735-1404 (2139)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.61	$0.67	+$0.06	54% 1849-1555 (3404)

GC-P

Invested

$782

Value

$795.5

PnL

+$13.5

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$610.48

Value

$557.63

PnL

+$7.64

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

No$340.5283¢+$7.1

Yes$210.4215.5¢+$0.54

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$504.05

Value

$517.08

PnL

+$13.04

Record

51%

46-45 (91)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$258.61

Value

$261.07

PnL

+$2.46

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Invested

$121.67

Value

$112.91

PnL

-$8.76

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$93.89

Value

$96.92

PnL

+$3.03

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

darkumbreon88<$100

Invested

$77.09

Value

$78.93

PnL

+$1.84

Record

61%

1003-631 (1634)

Zzzz87CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.72

Value

$65.38

PnL

-$9.34

Record

62%

73-44 (117)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$57.03

Value

$46.1

PnL

-$1.46

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.58

Value

$12.19

PnL

-$0.39

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.45

Value

$11.9

PnL

-$2.55

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$7.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.19

Value

$7.64

PnL

-$0.55

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$7.24

Value

$7.51

PnL

+$0.26

Record

43%

68-91 (159)

suntori<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.17

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$0.37

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 16 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.