Exact Score: Slovenia 1 - 0 Switzerland?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 93¢ · $546 held · ends Nov 13

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$545.52

Combined PnL

$9.97

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 92.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$417.81

Total Shares434

Combined PnL+$5.6

Yes4 traders

Total Value$127.71

Total Shares1,826

Combined PnL+$4.37

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Noavg 93¢	$243.07	$240.46	-$2.61	36% 761-1361 (2122)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$83.44	$90.89	+$7.45	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 92¢	$83.9	$85.44	+$1.54	47% 189-212 (401)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 92.7¢	$173.96	$66.79	+$6.73	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$24.37	$21.75	-$2.61	43% 808-1065 (1873)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 93¢	$16.93	$16.75	-$0.18	48% 677-745 (1422)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$12.25	$12.25	-$0	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92¢	$8.25	$8.38	+$0.13	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$3.29	$2.82	-$0.47	49% 1668-1706 (3374)

MadridTime

Invested

$243.07

Value

$240.46

PnL

-$2.61

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.44

Value

$90.89

PnL

+$7.45

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$83.9

Value

$85.44

PnL

+$1.54

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

38791873984189

Invested

$173.96

Value

$66.79

PnL

+$6.73

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.37

Value

$21.75

PnL

-$2.61

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$16.93

Value

$16.75

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.25

Value

$12.25

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.25

Value

$8.38

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.29

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$0.47

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.