Will Slovenia vs. Switzerland end in a draw?

15 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 71¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 13

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$13.4K

Combined PnL

$197.59

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 70.5¢

-1% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 18 top traders (83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares17,330

Combined PnL+$95.16

No15 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares11,185

Combined PnL+$102.43

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP SparYelCTR	Yesavg 28.9¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$95.16	— 1-18 (19)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 71¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$49.9	53% 1030-921 (1951)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 71¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$18.45	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
NM NM-P	Noavg 70.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$18.13	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
VE Venusian	Noavg 72¢	$771.11	$771.11	+$0	34% 735-1404 (2139)
GC GC-P	Noavg 71¢	$656.75	$666	+$9.25	33% 251-499 (750)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 71¢	$153.36	$155.52	+$2.16	47% 189-212 (401)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 71¢	$142	$144	+$2	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
0xheavy888	Noavg 71¢	$142	$144	+$2	53% 388-339 (727)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 71.3¢	$85.02	$85.89	+$0.87	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 74¢	$57.91	$57.01	-$0.89	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 71¢	$58.4	$49.23	-$0.26	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 71¢	$35.5	$36	+$0.5	26% 250-703 (953)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 71¢	$31.95	$32.4	+$0.45	56% 307-245 (552)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$14.28	$14.28	-$0	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 74¢	$8.48	$8.25	-$0.23	30% 77-180 (257)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 71¢	$6.89	$6.98	+$0.1	43% 808-1065 (1873)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$2.1	$2.1	-$0	51% 46-45 (91)

SparYelCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$95.16

Record

—

1-18 (19)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$3,550

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$49.9

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,309.83

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$18.45

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

NM-P

Invested

$1,209.81

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$18.13

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Venusian

Invested

$771.11

Value

$771.11

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

GC-P

Invested

$656.75

Value

$666

PnL

+$9.25

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$153.36

Value

$155.52

PnL

+$2.16

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

cigarettes

Invested

$142

Value

$144

PnL

+$2

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

0xheavy888

Invested

$142

Value

$144

PnL

+$2

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$85.02

Value

$85.89

PnL

+$0.87

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$57.91

Value

$57.01

PnL

-$0.89

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$58.4

Value

$49.23

PnL

-$0.26

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$35.5

Value

$36

PnL

+$0.5

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.95

Value

$32.4

PnL

+$0.45

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.28

Value

$14.28

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$8.48

Value

$8.25

PnL

-$0.23

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$6.89

Value

$6.98

PnL

+$0.1

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

46-45 (91)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 18 top traders (83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.