Slovenia vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 61¢ · $884 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$884.31
$18.11
59.7¢ → 60.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 59.5¢ | $318.11 | $325.89 | +$7.78 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 61¢ | $244 | $244 | -$0 | 53% 390-340 (730) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 39¢ | $192.94 | $197.89 | +$4.95 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
SU suntori<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $53.41 | $57.74 | +$4.33 | 46% 2104-2463 (4567) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $29.5 | $30.5 | +$1 | 48% 2787-3042 (5829) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $14.45 | $14.16 | -$0.29 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $13.77 | $14.13 | +$0.35 | 43% 809-1065 (1874) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$318.11
Value
$325.89
PnL
+$7.78
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
0xheavy888Invested
$244
Value
$244
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
390-340 (730)
Invested
$192.94
Value
$197.89
PnL
+$4.95
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Invested
$53.41
Value
$57.74
PnL
+$4.33
Record
46%
2104-2463 (4567)
Invested
$29.5
Value
$30.5
PnL
+$1
Record
48%
2787-3042 (5829)
Invested
$14.45
Value
$14.16
PnL
-$0.29
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$13.77
Value
$14.13
PnL
+$0.35
Record
43%
809-1065 (1874)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.