Serbia vs. Germany: O/U 5.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 87¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 13

Over14¢Under86¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

-$208.59

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 86.5¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares10,423

Combined PnL-$207.18

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares15,097

Combined PnL-$1.41

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87	Underavg 88¢	$9.2K	$9.0K	-$206.88	62% 73-44 (117)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 12¢	$676.8	$676.8	-$0	47% 189-212 (401)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 12¢	$489.97	$489.97	+$0	36% 326-587 (913)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 12¢	$278	$278	+$0	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 12.2¢	$244.34	$239.41	-$4.93	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 12.3¢	$53.84	$52.71	-$1.13	43% 808-1065 (1873)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$48	$48	+$0	41% 91-132 (223)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 12¢	$130.93	$26.58	+$4.65	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
HY hydra1248<$100	Underavg 88¢	$13.13	$12.83	-$0.3	76% 147-47 (194)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$7.15	$7.15	+$0	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

Zzzz87

Under

Invested

$9,157.76

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$206.88

Record

62%

73-44 (117)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$676.8

Value

$676.8

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$489.97

Value

$489.97

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$278

Value

$278

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$244.34

Value

$239.41

PnL

-$4.93

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.84

Value

$52.71

PnL

-$1.13

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48

Value

$48

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

91-132 (223)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$130.93

Value

$26.58

PnL

+$4.65

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

hydra1248<$100

Under

Invested

$13.13

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$0.3

Record

76%

147-47 (194)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.15

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.