Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (75%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Serbia vs. Germany: O/U 4.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (89%) · Over at 26¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13

Over26¢Under74¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$11.04

Smart Money Entry

25.4¢ → 25.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Under 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares11,129

Combined PnL+$9.61

Under1 trader

Total Value$52.86

Total Shares71

Combined PnL+$1.43

Over — 89%Under — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 25.3¢	$994.71	$1.0K	+$8.34	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 26¢	$927.94	$910.1	-$17.85	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 25¢	$619.01	$631.39	+$12.38	36% 326-587 (913)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Overavg 25¢	$297.83	$303.78	+$5.96	41% 91-132 (223)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Overavg 25¢	$292.97	$298.86	+$5.9	47% 189-212 (401)
└ Over leg	Overavg 25¢	$225.81	$230.32	+$4.52
└ Under leg	Underavg 73¢	$67.16	$68.54	+$1.38
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 72¢	$51.43	$52.86	+$1.43	48% 677-745 (1422)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$32.5	$33.15	+$0.65	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 25.6¢	$29.44	$29.48	+$0.04	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$7.83	$7.99	+$0.16	56% 307-245 (552)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$3.61	$3.54	-$0.07	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$994.71

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$8.34

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$927.94

Value

$910.1

PnL

-$17.85

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$619.01

Value

$631.39

PnL

+$12.38

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

mouzsynapseCTR

Over

Invested

$297.83

Value

$303.78

PnL

+$5.96

Record

41%

91-132 (223)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$292.97

Value

$298.86

PnL

+$5.9

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

Both legs:

Invested

$51.43

Value

$52.86

PnL

+$1.43

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.5

Value

$33.15

PnL

+$0.65

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.44

Value

$29.48

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.83

Value

$7.99

PnL

+$0.16

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.61

Value

$3.54

PnL

-$0.07

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Under 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.