Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (69%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Serbia vs. Germany: O/U 2.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 32¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$4.21
31.1¢ → 31.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $837.99 | $824.13 | -$13.86 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 32¢ | $443.56 | $429.7 | -$13.86 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 68¢ | $394.43 | $394.43 | +$0 | |
NM NM-PCTR | Underavg 31¢ | $227.78 | $231.45 | +$3.67 | 59% 3648-2489 (6137) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $37.2 | $37.8 | +$0.6 | 48% 2786-3040 (5826) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 68¢ | $24.64 | $24.82 | +$0.18 | 53% 388-339 (727) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 31.2¢ | $18.78 | $18.04 | +$0.25 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 68¢ | $9.52 | $9.52 | +$0 | 46% 2084-2445 (4529) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 31.2¢ | $6.64 | $6.59 | -$0.05 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $6.6 | $6.2 | -$0.4 | 36% 761-1361 (2122) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 31.5¢ | $3.15 | $3.1 | -$0.05 | 43% 808-1065 (1873) |
Invested
$837.99
Value
$824.13
PnL
-$13.86
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
Both legs:
Invested
$227.78
Value
$231.45
PnL
+$3.67
Record
59%
3648-2489 (6137)
Invested
$37.2
Value
$37.8
PnL
+$0.6
Record
48%
2786-3040 (5826)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$24.64
Value
$24.82
PnL
+$0.18
Record
53%
388-339 (727)
Invested
$18.78
Value
$18.04
PnL
+$0.25
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$9.52
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
2084-2445 (4529)
Invested
$6.64
Value
$6.59
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$6.2
PnL
-$0.4
Record
36%
761-1361 (2122)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.1
PnL
-$0.05
Record
43%
808-1065 (1873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.