Serbia vs. Germany: O/U 0.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Over97¢Under3¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$6.54

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 96.8¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,064

Combined PnL+$4.96

Under4 traders

Total Value$23.65

Total Shares814

Combined PnL+$1.58

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WarewaPain	Overavg 97.2¢	$675.48	$676.53	+$1.04	0% 0-207 (207)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 96.5¢	$173.03	$173.66	+$0.63	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Overavg 96.8¢	$106.45	$106.86	+$0.41	47% 191-212 (403)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 97.1¢	$192.21	$87.11	+$2.87	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 97¢	$8.37	$8.38	+$0.01	43% 809-1065 (1874)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 2.6¢	$7.86	$8.07	+$0.21	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 2.7¢	$5.71	$6.66	+$0.95	35% 750-1386 (2136)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 2.7¢	$5.26	$6.01	+$0.75	36% 326-587 (913)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$3.23	$2.91	-$0.32	53% 1374-1218 (2592)

WarewaPain

Over

Invested

$675.48

Value

$676.53

PnL

+$1.04

Record

0-207 (207)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$173.03

Value

$173.66

PnL

+$0.63

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Over

Invested

$106.45

Value

$106.86

PnL

+$0.41

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$192.21

Value

$87.11

PnL

+$2.87

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$8.37

Value

$8.38

PnL

+$0.01

Record

43%

809-1065 (1874)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.86

Value

$8.07

PnL

+$0.21

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.71

Value

$6.66

PnL

+$0.95

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.26

Value

$6.01

PnL

+$0.75

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.23

Value

$2.91

PnL

-$0.32

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.