Spread: Serbia (-1.5)

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Germany (11%) · Germany at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Serbia2¢Germany98¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Germany

Consensus Traders

Germany 11%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$12.05

Research grade

NeutralGermany at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Germany

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Serbia2%

Germany98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Germany1 trader

Total Value$979.5

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL+$1.5

Serbia8 traders

Total Value$257.59

Total Shares11,775

Combined PnL+$10.55

Germany — 11%Serbia — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU BunCaCham	Germanyavg 97.8¢	$978	$979.5	+$1.5	— 18-1 (19)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Serbiaavg 2.1¢	$199.28	$208.45	+$9.17	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Serbiaavg 2.1¢	$18.8	$19.45	+$0.65	43% 809-1065 (1874)
38 38791873984189CTR	Serbiaavg 2.1¢	$146.31	$11.28	+$0.69	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Serbiaavg 2.1¢	$6.69	$6.69	+$0	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Serbiaavg 2.1¢	$6.64	$6.64	-$0	53% 472-427 (899)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Serbiaavg 2.1¢	$2.55	$2.53	-$0.02	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Serbiaavg 2.1¢	$1.71	$1.71	-$0	47% 191-212 (403)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100	Serbiaavg 1.9¢	$0.77	$0.84	+$0.06	52% 2622-2452 (5074)

BunCaCham

Germany

Invested

$978

Value

$979.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

—

18-1 (19)

FlaznorpCTR

Serbia

Invested

$199.28

Value

$208.45

PnL

+$9.17

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

sentrioCTR<$100

Serbia

Invested

$18.8

Value

$19.45

PnL

+$0.65

Record

43%

809-1065 (1874)

38791873984189CTR

Serbia

Invested

$146.31

Value

$11.28

PnL

+$0.69

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Serbia

Invested

$6.69

Value

$6.69

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Serbia

Invested

$6.64

Value

$6.64

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

472-427 (899)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Serbia

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Serbia

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100

Serbia

Invested

$0.77

Value

$0.84

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

2622-2452 (5074)

Research grade

NeutralGermany at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Germany

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Germany wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.