Spread: Germany (-2.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Serbia (55%) · Serbia at 65¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Germany36¢Serbia64¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Serbia

Consensus Traders

Serbia 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$25.26

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 64.5¢

-5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSerbia at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Serbia

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Germany36%

Serbia65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Serbia6 traders

Total Value$932.65

Total Shares1,402

Combined PnL-$34.37

Germany5 traders

Total Value$733.32

Total Shares2,095

Combined PnL+$59.63

Serbia — 55%Germany — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Serbia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGermany 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Serbia 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b	Serbiaavg 68¢	$748	$715	-$33	— 8-4 (12)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Serbiaavg 65¢	$409.56	$424.7	+$15.13	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
└ Germany leg	Germanyavg 32.5¢	$197.38	$212.51	+$15.13
└ Serbia leg	Serbiaavg 65¢	$212.18	$212.18	+$0
LI LimousinCTR	Germanyavg 32.1¢	$340.26	$371.55	+$31.29	35% 735-1379 (2114)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Germanyavg 32.3¢	$246.89	$267.65	+$20.76	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Serbiaavg 67¢	$95.75	$92.95	-$2.8	56% 307-245 (552)
0xheavy888<$100	Serbiaavg 65¢	$61.94	$61.94	-$0	53% 388-339 (727)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Germanyavg 32.1¢	$53.39	$58.14	+$4.75	43% 808-1065 (1873)
GH ghorrock<$100	Serbiaavg 65¢	$33.46	$34.66	+$1.19	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Germanyavg 32¢	$30.17	$33	+$2.83	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
38 38791873984189<$100	Serbiaavg 65¢	$14.65	$14.65	+$0	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Serbiaavg 65¢	$13.22	$13.46	+$0.24	47% 189-212 (401)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Germanyavg 35¢	$2.99	$2.99	+$0	20% 47-184 (231)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b

Serbia

Invested

$748

Value

$715

PnL

-$33

Record

—

8-4 (12)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Serbia

Invested

$409.56

Value

$424.7

PnL

+$15.13

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Both legs:

Germany$197.3832.5¢+$15.13

Serbia$212.1865¢+$0

LimousinCTR

Germany

Invested

$340.26

Value

$371.55

PnL

+$31.29

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

FlaznorpCTR

Germany

Invested

$246.89

Value

$267.65

PnL

+$20.76

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Serbia

Invested

$95.75

Value

$92.95

PnL

-$2.8

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

0xheavy888<$100

Serbia

Invested

$61.94

Value

$61.94

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

sentrioCTR<$100

Germany

Invested

$53.39

Value

$58.14

PnL

+$4.75

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

ghorrock<$100

Serbia

Invested

$33.46

Value

$34.66

PnL

+$1.19

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

suntoriCTR<$100

Germany

Invested

$30.17

Value

$33

PnL

+$2.83

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

38791873984189<$100

Serbia

Invested

$14.65

Value

$14.65

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Serbia

Invested

$13.22

Value

$13.46

PnL

+$0.24

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Germany

Invested

$2.99

Value

$2.99

PnL

+$0

Record

20%

47-184 (231)

Research grade

NeutralSerbia at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Serbia

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Serbia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGermany 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Serbia 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Serbia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.