Spread: Germany (-1.5)
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Germany (14%) · Germany at 56¢ · $479 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Germany
7
Germany 14%
$478.55
$0.4
Research grade
NeutralGermany at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Germany. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TY Tys0n8686 | Germanyavg 55¢ | $316.22 | $319.1 | +$2.87 | — 5-5 (10) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Serbiaavg 45¢ | $62.1 | $60.72 | -$1.38 | 54% 211-181 (392) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Serbiaavg 45¢ | $52.2 | $51.62 | -$0.58 | 48% 2306-2514 (4820) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Serbiaavg 45¢ | $38.93 | $38.5 | -$0.43 | 54% 1036-900 (1936) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Serbiaavg 45¢ | $3.89 | $3.81 | -$0.09 | 51% 2643-2567 (5210) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Serbiaavg 44¢ | $2.55 | $2.58 | +$0.03 | 52% 816-742 (1558) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Serbiaavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.23 | -$0.02 | 41% 590-850 (1440) |
Invested
$316.22
Value
$319.1
PnL
+$2.87
Record
—
5-5 (10)
Invested
$62.1
Value
$60.72
PnL
-$1.38
Record
54%
211-181 (392)
Invested
$52.2
Value
$51.62
PnL
-$0.58
Record
48%
2306-2514 (4820)
Invested
$38.93
Value
$38.5
PnL
-$0.43
Record
54%
1036-900 (1936)
Invested
$3.89
Value
$3.81
PnL
-$0.09
Record
51%
2643-2567 (5210)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.58
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
816-742 (1558)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$0.02
Record
41%
590-850 (1440)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.