Will Serbia win on 2026-11-13?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$11.05
91¢ → 91.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 91¢ | $691.32 | $639.44 | -$51.88 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
0F 0F62 | Noavg 91¢ | $458.15 | $370.04 | -$88.11 | — 17-1 (18) |
OD OddstormCTR | Yesavg 9¢ | $54.13 | $159.39 | +$105.26 | 23% 38-129 (167) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $36.58 | $45.92 | +$9.34 | 40% 438-657 (1095) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 91¢ | $28.92 | $23.36 | -$5.56 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 9¢ | $7.66 | $22.56 | +$14.9 | |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $35.46 | $30.48 | +$17.02 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $3.42 | $10.07 | +$6.65 | 49% 973-998 (1971) |
Invested
$691.32
Value
$639.44
PnL
-$51.88
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
Invested
$458.15
Value
$370.04
PnL
-$88.11
Record
—
17-1 (18)
Invested
$54.13
Value
$159.39
PnL
+$105.26
Record
23%
38-129 (167)
Invested
$36.58
Value
$45.92
PnL
+$9.34
Record
40%
438-657 (1095)
Both legs:
Invested
$35.46
Value
$30.48
PnL
+$17.02
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Invested
$3.42
Value
$10.07
PnL
+$6.65
Record
49%
973-998 (1971)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.