Will Germany win on 2026-11-13?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 78¢ · $513 held · ends Nov 13

Yes78¢No22¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$513.47

Combined PnL

-$95.54

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 77.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$294.77

Total Shares1,340

Combined PnL-$7.94

Yes4 traders

Total Value$218.69

Total Shares398

Combined PnL-$87.6

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR	Noavg 22¢	$120.15	$120.15	+$0	— 0-6 (6)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 77¢	$160.17	$114.41	-$45.76	61% 935-598 (1533)
GA GamblingOdyssey	Yesavg 77¢	$130.28	$93.05	-$37.22	34% 10-19 (29)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$95.65	$91.49	-$4.16	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$43.49	$41.6	-$1.89	40% 438-657 (1095)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$43.41	$41.53	-$1.89	23% 38-129 (167)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 77.7¢	$13.56	$9.6	-$3.96	66% 122-63 (185)
HY hydra1248<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$2.28	$1.63	-$0.65	78% 108-30 (138)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR

Invested

$120.15

Value

$120.15

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0-6 (6)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$160.17

Value

$114.41

PnL

-$45.76

Record

61%

935-598 (1533)

GamblingOdyssey

Yes

Invested

$130.28

Value

$93.05

PnL

-$37.22

Record

34%

10-19 (29)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$95.65

Value

$91.49

PnL

-$4.16

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$43.49

Value

$41.6

PnL

-$1.89

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

OddstormCTR<$100

Invested

$43.41

Value

$41.53

PnL

-$1.89

Record

23%

38-129 (167)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.56

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$3.96

Record

66%

122-63 (185)

hydra1248<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.28

Value

$1.63

PnL

-$0.65

Record

78%

108-30 (138)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.