Exact Score: Serbia 0 - 3 Germany?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 89¢ · $456 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$455.58
$8.57
89.5¢ → 88.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 89.5¢ | $311.28 | $307.79 | -$3.49 | 33% 251-499 (750) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 89¢ | $168.1 | $59.87 | +$9.56 | 48% 2787-3042 (5829) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $30.24 | $29.9 | -$0.34 | 59% 3648-2489 (6137) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $20.95 | $23.04 | +$2.09 | 46% 2104-2463 (4567) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $16.46 | $17.21 | +$0.75 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $11.49 | $11.42 | -$0.06 | 47% 191-212 (403) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $5.2 | $5.2 | -$0 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $1.1 | $1.15 | +$0.05 | 49% 1669-1706 (3375) |
Invested
$311.28
Value
$307.79
PnL
-$3.49
Record
33%
251-499 (750)
Invested
$168.1
Value
$59.87
PnL
+$9.56
Record
48%
2787-3042 (5829)
Invested
$30.24
Value
$29.9
PnL
-$0.34
Record
59%
3648-2489 (6137)
Invested
$20.95
Value
$23.04
PnL
+$2.09
Record
46%
2104-2463 (4567)
Invested
$16.46
Value
$17.21
PnL
+$0.75
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Invested
$11.49
Value
$11.42
PnL
-$0.06
Record
47%
191-212 (403)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$5.2
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.15
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
1669-1706 (3375)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.