Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Serbia vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Yes51¢No49¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$33.92

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 49.5¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,924

Combined PnL+$48.9

Yes3 traders

Total Value$500.06

Total Shares975

Combined PnL-$14.98

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 47.1¢	$542.4	$570.36	+$27.96	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
nigiri99	Yesavg 53¢	$270.83	$265.72	-$5.11	52% 471-427 (898)
0xheavy888CTR	Noavg 48¢	$244.44	$244.44	-$0	53% 388-339 (727)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 48¢	$223.57	$230.56	+$6.99	33% 251-499 (750)
SU suntori	Yesavg 52.7¢	$234.33	$224.74	-$9.58	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 48¢	$204	$210.38	+$6.38	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 47.8¢	$92.94	$80.82	+$3.01	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 47.1¢	$57.1	$60.04	+$2.93	43% 808-1065 (1873)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 47.6¢	$34.56	$35.92	+$1.36	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$9.88	$9.59	-$0.28	51% 46-45 (91)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$8.85	$9.13	+$0.28	35% 749-1385 (2134)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$0.65	$0.65	+$0.01	47% 189-212 (401)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$542.4

Value

$570.36

PnL

+$27.96

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

nigiri99

Yes

Invested

$270.83

Value

$265.72

PnL

-$5.11

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$244.44

Value

$244.44

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$223.57

Value

$230.56

PnL

+$6.99

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$234.33

Value

$224.74

PnL

-$9.58

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$204

Value

$210.38

PnL

+$6.38

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$92.94

Value

$80.82

PnL

+$3.01

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$57.1

Value

$60.04

PnL

+$2.93

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$34.56

Value

$35.92

PnL

+$1.36

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.88

Value

$9.59

PnL

-$0.28

Record

51%

46-45 (91)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$8.85

Value

$9.13

PnL

+$0.28

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.