Scotland vs. North Macedonia: O/U 5.5

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (13%) · Under at 91¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 13

Over10¢Under90¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 13%

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$77.23

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares12,500

Combined PnL+$30.62

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares14,013

Combined PnL+$46.6

Under — 13%Over — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87	Underavg 91.4¢	$11.4K	$11.4K	+$30.62	62% 73-44 (117)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 9¢	$604.25	$604.2	-$0.05	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 8¢	$253.76	$285.48	+$31.72	47% 189-212 (401)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 9¢	$205.4	$205.45	+$0.05	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$85.48	$96.17	+$10.69	41% 91-132 (223)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 9¢	$53.61	$56.26	+$2.65	43% 808-1065 (1873)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 8.5¢	$24.94	$26.37	+$1.43	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 8.8¢	$5.19	$5.31	+$0.12	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

Zzzz87

Under

Invested

$11,418.84

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$30.62

Record

62%

73-44 (117)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$604.25

Value

$604.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$253.76

Value

$285.48

PnL

+$31.72

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$205.4

Value

$205.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$85.48

Value

$96.17

PnL

+$10.69

Record

41%

91-132 (223)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.61

Value

$56.26

PnL

+$2.65

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.94

Value

$26.37

PnL

+$1.43

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.19

Value

$5.31

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.