Scotland vs. North Macedonia: O/U 4.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 80¢ · $877 held · ends Nov 13

Over21¢Under79¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$877.09

Combined PnL

$16.86

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 79.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$598.07

Total Shares748

Combined PnL-$3.54

Over4 traders

Total Value$279.03

Total Shares1,362

Combined PnL+$20.4

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Underavg 80¢	$547.2	$543.78	-$3.42	53% 390-340 (730)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 20¢	$136.8	$140.22	+$3.42	35% 750-1386 (2136)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 17.9¢	$112.76	$129.41	+$16.64	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 79¢	$21.26	$21.75	+$0.49	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 80¢	$20	$19.88	-$0.13	53% 472-427 (899)
HY hydra1248<$100	Underavg 83.1¢	$13.14	$12.66	-$0.48	76% 147-47 (194)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$6.6	$6.6	+$0	36% 326-587 (913)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 17.6¢	$2.46	$2.8	+$0.34	49% 1669-1706 (3375)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$547.2

Value

$543.78

PnL

-$3.42

Record

53%

390-340 (730)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$136.8

Value

$140.22

PnL

+$3.42

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$112.76

Value

$129.41

PnL

+$16.64

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$21.26

Value

$21.75

PnL

+$0.49

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$19.88

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

472-427 (899)

hydra1248<$100

Under

Invested

$13.14

Value

$12.66

PnL

-$0.48

Record

76%

147-47 (194)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.46

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.34

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.