Scotland vs. North Macedonia: O/U 1.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 83¢ · $625 held · ends Nov 13

Over83¢Under17¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$625.23

Combined PnL

-$2.86

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 82.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over83%

Under18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$460.46

Total Shares559

Combined PnL+$6.21

Under4 traders

Total Value$164.77

Total Shares936

Combined PnL-$9.07

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Overavg 82¢	$328	$330	+$2	53% 388-339 (727)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 18¢	$132.33	$128.65	-$3.68	36% 761-1361 (2122)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 79¢	$83.47	$86.64	+$3.17	61% 1003-631 (1634)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 79.7¢	$35.84	$36.89	+$1.05	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$22.71	$19.47	-$3.24	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$12.5	$11.25	-$1.25	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 82.2¢	$6.94	$6.93	-$0.01	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$6.3	$5.4	-$0.9	43% 808-1065 (1873)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$328

Value

$330

PnL

+$2

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$132.33

Value

$128.65

PnL

-$3.68

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

darkumbreon88<$100

Over

Invested

$83.47

Value

$86.64

PnL

+$3.17

Record

61%

1003-631 (1634)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$35.84

Value

$36.89

PnL

+$1.05

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.71

Value

$19.47

PnL

-$3.24

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.5

Value

$11.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$6.94

Value

$6.93

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.3

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$0.9

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.