Scotland vs. North Macedonia: North Macedonia O/U 0.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 61¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Over40¢Under60¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$22.85

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 60.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,143

Combined PnL-$19.72

Over7 traders

Total Value$928.76

Total Shares2,381

Combined PnL-$3.13

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO jole24	Underavg 61¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$20	45% 18-22 (40)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 39¢	$739.03	$739.43	+$0.4	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$400	$198	-$2	75% 112-37 (149)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$120	+$20
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$78	-$22
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 59.8¢	$63.71	$63.97	+$0.25	56% 307-245 (552)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$49.84	$48.55	-$1.29	34% 735-1404 (2139)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$48.36	$48.36	+$0	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$38.64	$37.67	-$0.97	35% 749-1385 (2134)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 40.5¢	$26.72	$25.7	-$1.02	35% 735-1379 (2114)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 59.7¢	$25.39	$25.41	+$0.02	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$19.3	$19.3	+$0	43% 808-1065 (1873)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$10	$9.75	-$0.25	36% 761-1361 (2122)

jole24

Under

Invested

$1,219.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$20

Record

45%

18-22 (40)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$739.03

Value

$739.43

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$400

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

Both legs:

Invested

$63.71

Value

$63.97

PnL

+$0.25

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.84

Value

$48.55

PnL

-$1.29

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.36

Value

$48.36

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.64

Value

$37.67

PnL

-$0.97

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.72

Value

$25.7

PnL

-$1.02

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$25.39

Value

$25.41

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.3

Value

$19.3

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.