Will Scotland win on 2026-11-13?

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 84¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 13

Yes84¢No16¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

-$36.75

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 83.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares8,999

Combined PnL+$42.59

No9 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares15,850

Combined PnL-$79.34

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Yesavg 83¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	+$34.56	52% 471-427 (898)
SU suntori	Yesavg 83.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$4.47	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR	Noavg 17¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$70	45% 13-16 (29)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 16.6¢	$353.94	$341.38	-$12.55	33% 251-499 (750)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 16¢	$313.92	$323.83	+$9.91	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 17¢	$339.98	$319.98	-$20	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Noavg 17¢	$287.47	$270.56	-$16.91	47% 189-212 (401)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 17¢	$136	$128	-$8	22% 266-965 (1231)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$96.5	$98.85	+$2.35	61% 1003-631 (1634)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$77.19	$78.12	+$0.93	45% 214-259 (473)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 16.9¢	$26.86	$26.29	-$0.57	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 16.1¢	$30.05	$18.31	+$38.56	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$10	$10.12	+$0.12	10% 11-100 (111)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$6.92	$7.13	+$0.22	36% 326-587 (913)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$4.26	$4.42	+$0.16	30% 77-180 (257)

nigiri99

Yes

Invested

$5,786.22

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$34.56

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$1,498.89

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$4.47

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR

Invested

$1,189.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$70

Record

45%

13-16 (29)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$353.94

Value

$341.38

PnL

-$12.55

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$313.92

Value

$323.83

PnL

+$9.91

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$339.98

Value

$319.98

PnL

-$20

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Invested

$287.47

Value

$270.56

PnL

-$16.91

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$136

Value

$128

PnL

-$8

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.5

Value

$98.85

PnL

+$2.35

Record

61%

1003-631 (1634)

Forecastication2<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.19

Value

$78.12

PnL

+$0.93

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$26.86

Value

$26.29

PnL

-$0.57

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$30.05

Value

$18.31

PnL

+$38.56

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10.12

PnL

+$0.12

Record

10%

11-100 (111)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$6.92

Value

$7.13

PnL

+$0.22

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

Oddstorm<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.26

Value

$4.42

PnL

+$0.16

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.