Will North Macedonia win on 2026-11-13?
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 96¢ · $438 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 25%
$438.01
-$25.46
95¢ → 95.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Noavg 95¢ | $375.38 | $377.36 | +$1.98 | 59% 3648-2489 (6137) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $49.2 | $44.28 | -$4.92 | 52% 471-427 (898) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $4.79 | $4.73 | -$0.06 | 30% 77-180 (257) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $4.51 | $4.06 | -$0.45 | 34% 735-1404 (2139) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.8¢ | $25.75 | $3.89 | -$21.86 | 48% 2786-3040 (5826) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $2.26 | $2.03 | -$0.23 | 35% 735-1379 (2114) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $1.27 | $1.32 | +$0.04 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.31 | $0.35 | +$0.04 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
Invested
$375.38
Value
$377.36
PnL
+$1.98
Record
59%
3648-2489 (6137)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$49.2
Value
$44.28
PnL
-$4.92
Record
52%
471-427 (898)
Invested
$4.79
Value
$4.73
PnL
-$0.06
Record
30%
77-180 (257)
Invested
$4.51
Value
$4.06
PnL
-$0.45
Record
34%
735-1404 (2139)
Invested
$25.75
Value
$3.89
PnL
-$21.86
Record
48%
2786-3040 (5826)
Invested
$2.26
Value
$2.03
PnL
-$0.23
Record
35%
735-1379 (2114)
Invested
$1.27
Value
$1.32
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$0.31
Value
$0.35
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.