Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Scotland vs. North Macedonia: Both Teams to Score

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 38¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$13.52

Smart Money Entry

36.3¢ → 37.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$609.64

Total Shares957

Combined PnL-$3.48

Yes5 traders

Total Value$683.68

Total Shares1,838

Combined PnL+$17

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Noavg 63¢	$418.39	$418.39	-$0	53% 390-340 (730)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 35.7¢	$308.21	$319.39	+$11.18	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$132.11	$133.9	+$1.79	35% 750-1386 (2136)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$132.11	$133.9	+$1.79	36% 763-1361 (2124)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.2¢	$90.75	$92.79	+$2.05	43% 809-1065 (1874)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 64.3¢	$88.05	$86.31	-$1.74	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$80.47	$78.43	-$2.04	56% 309-246 (555)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 63.5¢	$20.03	$20.23	+$0.2	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 62¢	$6.19	$6.29	+$0.1	48% 677-745 (1422)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$3.51	$3.71	+$0.2	49% 1669-1706 (3375)

0xheavy888

Invested

$418.39

Value

$418.39

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

390-340 (730)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$308.21

Value

$319.39

PnL

+$11.18

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.11

Value

$133.9

PnL

+$1.79

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.11

Value

$133.9

PnL

+$1.79

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.75

Value

$92.79

PnL

+$2.05

Record

43%

809-1065 (1874)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$88.05

Value

$86.31

PnL

-$1.74

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$80.47

Value

$78.43

PnL

-$2.04

Record

56%

309-246 (555)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.03

Value

$20.23

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$6.19

Value

$6.29

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.71

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.