Romania vs. Poland: O/U 3.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 65¢ · $852 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$851.77
-$16.33
66.3¢ → 64.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 66.3¢ | $690.06 | $671.68 | -$18.38 | 53% 2108-1855 (3963) |
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 35.9¢ | $105.8 | $104.73 | -$1.08 | 51% 568-535 (1103) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 32.7¢ | $37.79 | $41.4 | +$3.61 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $20.85 | $19.62 | -$1.23 | 53% 1809-1607 (3416) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $13.6 | $14.35 | +$0.75 | 37% 968-1674 (2642) |
Invested
$690.06
Value
$671.68
PnL
-$18.38
Record
53%
2108-1855 (3963)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$105.8
Value
$104.73
PnL
-$1.08
Record
51%
568-535 (1103)
Invested
$37.79
Value
$41.4
PnL
+$3.61
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
Invested
$20.85
Value
$19.62
PnL
-$1.23
Record
53%
1809-1607 (3416)
Invested
$13.6
Value
$14.35
PnL
+$0.75
Record
37%
968-1674 (2642)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.