Romania vs. Poland: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 56¢ · $520 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$520.18
$0.22
56¢ → 56.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZZ Zzzz87 | Overavg 56¢ | $239.07 | $239.12 | +$0.05 | 61% 87-56 (143) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $172.73 | $172.6 | -$0.13 | 49% 3807-3970 (7777) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $49.37 | $49.81 | +$0.44 | 53% 2083-1825 (3908) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 44.1¢ | $41.24 | $41.19 | -$0.05 | 42% 990-1359 (2349) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 44.2¢ | $17.54 | $17.45 | -$0.09 | 52% 1712-1564 (3276) |
Invested
$239.07
Value
$239.12
PnL
+$0.05
Record
61%
87-56 (143)
Invested
$172.73
Value
$172.6
PnL
-$0.13
Record
49%
3807-3970 (7777)
Invested
$49.37
Value
$49.81
PnL
+$0.44
Record
53%
2083-1825 (3908)
Invested
$41.24
Value
$41.19
PnL
-$0.05
Record
42%
990-1359 (2349)
Invested
$17.54
Value
$17.45
PnL
-$0.09
Record
52%
1712-1564 (3276)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.