Romania vs. Poland: O/U 1.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 81¢ · $229 held · ends Nov 14

Over81¢Under19¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$228.71

Combined PnL

-$0.42

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 80.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over81%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$147.21

Total Shares182

Combined PnL+$1.77

Under4 traders

Total Value$81.49

Total Shares424

Combined PnL-$2.19

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 80¢	$143.01	$144.8	+$1.79	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 20.1¢	$41.31	$39.02	-$2.29	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$29.64	$30.35	+$0.71	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 19.7¢	$7.23	$7.13	-$0.09	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$5.52	$4.99	-$0.53	42% 1030-1415 (2445)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 81¢	$2.43	$2.42	-$0.02	51% 568-535 (1103)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$143.01

Value

$144.8

PnL

+$1.79

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.31

Value

$39.02

PnL

-$2.29

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.64

Value

$30.35

PnL

+$0.71

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.23

Value

$7.13

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.52

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0.53

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$2.43

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.