Spread: Poland (-2.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Romania (67%) · Romania at 84¢ · $823 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Romania
6
Romania 67%
$822.75
-$361.99
84¢ → 83.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralRomania at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Romaniaavg 83.9¢ | $813.32 | $513.86 | -$299.45 | 53% 2162-1905 (4067) |
 nigiri99CTR | Polandavg 16¢ | $145.44 | $149.99 | +$4.55 | 51% 568-535 (1103) |
38 38791873984189 | Romaniaavg 84.2¢ | $141.13 | $88.82 | -$52.3 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Polandavg 16¢ | $42.85 | $44.19 | +$1.34 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Romaniaavg 86¢ | $24.8 | $15.29 | -$9.52 | 53% 1811-1610 (3421) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | Romaniaavg 86¢ | $17.2 | $10.6 | -$6.6 | 48% 301-330 (631) |
Invested
$813.32
Value
$513.86
PnL
-$299.45
Record
53%
2162-1905 (4067)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$145.44
Value
$149.99
PnL
+$4.55
Record
51%
568-535 (1103)
Invested
$141.13
Value
$88.82
PnL
-$52.3
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
Invested
$42.85
Value
$44.19
PnL
+$1.34
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Invested
$24.8
Value
$15.29
PnL
-$9.52
Record
53%
1811-1610 (3421)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$10.6
PnL
-$6.6
Record
48%
301-330 (631)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.