Spread: Poland (-1.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Romania (55%) · Romania at 65¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Poland36¢Romania64¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Romania

Consensus Traders

Romania 55%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$22.46

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 64.5¢

-5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralRomania at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Romania

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Poland36%

Romania65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Romania6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,255

Combined PnL-$45.52

Poland5 traders

Total Value$739.92

Total Shares2,139

Combined PnL+$23.05

Romania — 55%Poland — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Romania. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPoland 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Romania 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Romaniaavg 67¢	$952.38	$931.06	-$21.32	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Polandavg 33¢	$458.35	$479.54	+$21.19	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
GO GoalLineGhost	Romaniaavg 70¢	$280.82	$268.96	-$11.86	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
0xheavy888	Romaniaavg 66¢	$156.38	$155.2	-$1.18	54% 496-419 (915)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Polandavg 34.9¢	$147.76	$145.98	-$1.77	37% 960-1662 (2622)
38 38791873984189<$100	Romaniaavg 71.3¢	$92.65	$85.8	-$6.86	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Polandavg 34.4¢	$69.43	$71.63	+$2.2	36% 933-1644 (2577)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Polandavg 33.3¢	$38.74	$40.13	+$1.4	37% 970-1635 (2605)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Romaniaavg 70¢	$35.7	$33.66	-$2.04	48% 286-306 (592)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Romaniaavg 71¢	$31.95	$29.7	-$2.25	56% 463-370 (833)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Polandavg 34¢	$2.6	$2.64	+$0.04	36% 948-1669 (2617)

suntori

Romania

Invested

$952.38

Value

$931.06

PnL

-$21.32

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

FlaznorpCTR

Poland

Invested

$458.35

Value

$479.54

PnL

+$21.19

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

GoalLineGhost

Romania

Invested

$280.82

Value

$268.96

PnL

-$11.86

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

0xheavy888

Romania

Invested

$156.38

Value

$155.2

PnL

-$1.18

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

LightParadoxCTR

Poland

Invested

$147.76

Value

$145.98

PnL

-$1.77

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

38791873984189<$100

Romania

Invested

$92.65

Value

$85.8

PnL

-$6.86

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

LimousinCTR<$100

Poland

Invested

$69.43

Value

$71.63

PnL

+$2.2

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Poland

Invested

$38.74

Value

$40.13

PnL

+$1.4

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Romania

Invested

$35.7

Value

$33.66

PnL

-$2.04

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Romania

Invested

$31.95

Value

$29.7

PnL

-$2.25

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

VenusianCTR<$100

Poland

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.64

PnL

+$0.04

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

Research grade

NeutralRomania at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Romania

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Romania. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPoland 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Romania 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Romania wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.