Will Romania win on 2026-11-14?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 77¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$4.0K
-$20.33
77¢ → 76.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2 | Noavg 77¢ | $3.2K | $3.1K | -$20.45 | 45% 224-272 (496) |
GC GC-PCTR | Yesavg 23.1¢ | $265.44 | $264.64 | -$0.8 | 36% 317-553 (870) |
NM NM-PCTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $245.53 | $245.53 | +$0 | 60% 3726-2536 (6262) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $215.28 | $215.28 | +$0 | 50% 3526-3585 (7111) |
OD Oddstorm | Noavg 76.1¢ | $132.17 | $132.85 | +$0.68 | 32% 92-194 (286) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $31.92 | $32.13 | +$0.21 | 56% 426-340 (766) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $25.54 | $25.54 | +$0 | 53% 1556-1404 (2960) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $1.79 | $1.83 | +$0.04 | 43% 915-1235 (2150) |
Invested
$3,150.07
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$20.45
Record
45%
224-272 (496)
Invested
$265.44
Value
$264.64
PnL
-$0.8
Record
36%
317-553 (870)
Invested
$245.53
Value
$245.53
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
3726-2536 (6262)
Invested
$215.28
Value
$215.28
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
3526-3585 (7111)
Invested
$132.17
Value
$132.85
PnL
+$0.68
Record
32%
92-194 (286)
Invested
$31.92
Value
$32.13
PnL
+$0.21
Record
56%
426-340 (766)
Invested
$25.54
Value
$25.54
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1556-1404 (2960)
Invested
$1.79
Value
$1.83
PnL
+$0.04
Record
43%
915-1235 (2150)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.